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And the Oscar goes to...

Overrated actresses. 'Gods and Monsters.' Screen Guild Award winner. "Ryan.' Spielberg. Who will and deserve to win the golden man?

Best Picture

Will Win: "Saving Private Ryan"

Should Win: "Saving Private Ryan"

Whether or not it actually was 1998's best movie is debatable. No matter what the verdict, though, "Ryan" has Oscar written all over it. It's a war epic, a genre long appreciated by the Academy from "Ben-Hur" to "Braveheart." It's the year's most successful film at the box office, a la "Titanic" and "Forrest Gump."

And as if that isn't enough, it stars America's favorite actor, Tom Hanks, and is directed by the most popular director of all time, Steven Spielberg, who already has three Oscars. Beyond all these predictions, however, "Ryan" is an incredibly powerful, if not a little manipulative, film that reminds an entire nation of the sacrifices of its elders.

Best Actress

Will Win: Gwyneth Paltrow

Should Win: Fernanda Montenegro

The neck-and-neck horse-race comes between Paltrow's turn as Shakespeare's muse and Kate Blanchett's fabulously supercharged portrayal of the Virgin Queen in "Elizabeth." The prediction here is Paltrow, whose popularity within the industry and huge marketing push by Miramax should vault her to the top.

Paltrow is one of the most overrated actresses in Hollywood, with her role in "Shakespeare in Love" as little more than an over-glorified love interest. The nod goes to Montenegro of "Central Station," who evoked sentimentality and emotion without the benefit of a hiding behind a decadent 17th century costume.

Best Actor

Will Win: Nick Nolte

Should Win: Ian McKellen

Don't count out Italian actor, director and writer Robert Benigni, who just picked up a Screen Actors Guild Award for his performance in "Life is Beautiful." But this year's award will likely go to veteran American actor Nolte for his role as a troubled sheriff. Though McKellen deserves the award for his gripping portrait of James Whale in "Gods and Monsters," more conservative Academy members could be scared off by an openly gay actor playing an openly gay director.

Best Director

Will Win: Steven Spielberg

Should Win: Steven Spielberg

This category is fairly easy to call. No other directors really stand a chance this year against the juggernaut of "Saving Private Ryan." Not only a gripping, haunting portrayal of World War II, replete with some of the most viscerally imagined war scenes ever put on celluloid, but also 1998's highest-grossing film, "Ryan" reminds us all once again of the Spielberg's unbelievable vision and tremendous gift for storytelling. The only other possibilities ­ Benigni for his wonderful "Life is Beautiful" or Terence Malick for his meditative (and self-indulgent) "Thin Red Line" ­ might have stood a chance in some other year, but on Oscar night, look for Spielberg's "Schindler's List" Oscar to win a companion.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Judi Dench

Should Win: Lynn Redgrave

Dench and Redgrave are the favorites in this category, but the lone American, Kathy Bates, shouldn't be counted out for her bold, attention-grabbing performance in "Primary Colors." Though on screen for only a handful of minutes, British actress Dench is the front-runner for her commanding turn as Queen Elizabeth in "Shakespeare in Love."But more deserving of the Oscar is Redgrave, who flawlessly mixes comic, tragic and human elements in her portrayal of a slightly off-beat Hungarian maid to an aging Hollywood film director in "Gods and Monsters."

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Billy Bob Thornton

Should Win: Billy Bob Thornton

A talented and fairly even field, including several past Oscar winners and nominees, this race is hard to call. James Coburn and Robert Duvall could be honored for their performances in "Affliction" and "A Civil Action," respectively, while the hype and acclaim surrounding "Shakespeare in Love" could find Geoffrey Rush accepting his second golden man. But Billy Bob Thornton should and will win for his fascinating, honest and moving performance in the under-rated "A Simple Plan."

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