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Trying to prognosticate the future of Bruin men’s basketball two games into the season is always a little dicey, but especially for this team.

Who would have guessed, after two games, that last year’s squad would end up losing 19 games and missing the NCAA tournament? Who would be so bold to say that after starting 4-0 this year (Exhibition wins matter for this team. Recall the 25-point loss to Branch West last season?) that these Bruins will also miss the NCAA tournament?

Well, how about yours truly.

I’ll say it right now: It will be awfully difficult for this team to win more than 16 or 17 games. Anything beyond that would be a revelation on the order of Paris Hilton shopping at WalMart.

While that’s a nice improvement over the previous regime, especially given the fact that the Bruins lost Jason Kapono, it shouldn’t be enough to get UCLA into the tournament. I’m no bracketologist, but I figure only four teams are getting into the tournament from the Pac-10, and I can’t foresee UCLA finishing ahead of Arizona, Stanford, Oregon, California or Arizona State.

Because, for the first time since perhaps the Reggie Miller era, the Bruins are thin on talent.

Dijon Thompson and Trevor Ariza are dynamic scorers and solid players. Cedric Bozeman can defend opposing point guards and is reliable in running the offense. Beyond that, the Bruins are running into a crapshoot.

The team already lost Ariza for two weeks while he recuperates from a collapsed lung (for what it’s worth, a collapsed lung has got to be the worst-sounding injury in the history of injuries), and it remains to be seen how productive he can be when he returns.

He is only one of a number of questions for which Ben Howland will have to find answers.

Can Brian Morrison consistently hit his outside shot? What will UCLA get out of the center position between Ryan Hollins and Michael Fey? What will T.J. Cummings bring to the table when he returns to the team? If Shaq falls and nobody is around, does he still make a sound?

Anyway, there’s a lot about this time that can’t help but make you feel uneasy.

Cummings is a power forward who can shoot from the outside, something that Howland loves.

But let’s not start ringing the wedding bells just yet. In three years Cummings has yet to display the skills as a defender and rebounder that he’ll need to endear himself to Howland. A lot of Bruin fans are banking on T.J.’s return as a catalyst for the team. Think about that for a minute: T.J. Cummings, savior. Right.

Also, realize that – and I mean this in the kindest possible way – unless Howland plays his starters 40 minutes a game, we could potentially see the fearsome fivesome of Josiah Johnson, Ryan Walcott, Ryan Hollins, Janou Rubin and Brian Morrison on the floor. That combination isn’t going to win very many games.

The Pac-10 isn’t as strong as it has been in the past, and perhaps a few teams will be surprisingly bad. Oregon is hoping their freshman point guard recruit can pick up where Luke Ridnour left off. Arizona State lost a few key seniors, putting more pressure on sophomore stud Ike Diogu. Cal is a team with talent, but is also inexperienced. So, maybe, the Bruins can sneak into a higher spot than they deserve.

After all, UCLA still gets the benefit of the doubt, due to name and reputation alone. As such, maybe the Bruins will make the tournament at the expense of a more deserving team (sorry, Southern Illinois State).

And maybe elves will magically come in the night and write my final paper.

Bottom line is that UCLA should be playing good basketball by the end of the season, but it probably won’t be good enough to sway an NCAA tournament committee.

The Lakers have the best record in the NBA, and Colin is positively giddy. E-mail him at cyuhl@media.ucla.edu

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