Friday, May 16th, 2008

Democratic candidates’ chances slim

Kerry not moderate enough to take back white house; party's best chance is 2008

Congratulations, John Kerry, it appears you will be the one earning the honor of losing to President Bush in this year’s election. Come November, an all too common question heard around Washington will be, “Hey, John, why the long face?”

Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary gave the Massachusetts senator his second political victory in as many weeks. Kerry won 38 percent of the vote, well ahead of second- place finisher Howard Dean, who tallied 26 percent. Kerry now turns his momentum toward the seven states that will have either primaries or caucuses on Feb. 3.

Questions remain however as to whether or not Kerry is a candidate behind whom the Democratic Party can unite. Kerry hails from one of the most liberal states in the union and is far from being a centrist. When it comes time for the national election, moderate swing voters may well see him as being too extreme for their interests.

Furthermore, Kerry’s service in the Senate will also be used against him. His 19-year voting record shows he has consistently contradicted himself, often changing his mind on the issues.

Kerry’s most recent about-face is with regard to Operation Iraqi Freedom. He initially voted to support the war. However, he eventually changed his position on the war in general and voted against the $87 billion package meant to support the troops and help rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan. He cast his vote to send our brave soldiers into the Middle East. Common sense dictates the troops must be given the resources needed to carry out their mission.

It is a new feeling for Kerry to be the leader of the pack. The early front-runner Dean witnessed his popularity plummet in recent weeks. What the former Vermont governor has done to his campaign can only be described as a doctor-assisted suicide. Dean’s storied temper growled through when he flamed out at a 66-year-old man attending an Iowa debate. His strong anti-war stance and his assertions that the Iraqi people are clearly no better off without Saddam Hussein have also alienated potential supporters.

Iowans realized Dean was an unelectable choice and voted accordingly. The man who once had a stranglehold on the Hawkeye State ended up finishing third in his first real test. Dean tried to convince the American public that only a caucus sucker would buy into the results of Iowa.

His distant finish in New Hampshire, however, suggests Dean has about as much of chance of winning the nomination as Jessica Simpson does of being the winner on “Celebrity Jeopardy.”

The capture of Hussein and the resurgence of the economy already gave Bush substantial appeal heading into re-election. A lack of any real strong opponent has only strengthened his chances.

The Democratic presidential candidates have been plagued by their relative anonymity. Each candidate has not only needed to present his platform to the people, but his persona as well. They have gone out of the way to make themselves appear more personable to potential voters – be it by shaking hands on the street corner or flipping flapjacks in a local diner.

Despite their best efforts though, the candidates have done little to endear themselves to the voting public. John Edwards has notably been the one of the most charismatic campaigners, however most voters want a president who at least looks old enough to drink the champagne at his inauguration.

As sure as Dean can say “Yeeeeeehaaaaaaa,” Democrats are looking at 2008 as a more realistic chance of taking back the White House.

Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Edwards will each be seen as viable candidates and will give voters in the primaries legitimate options, something they do not have this time around. Now Democratic voters must make do with what they have and pray the results are not too embarrassing.

The bottom line is that the only way the Democrats will be able to see the Oval Office during the next four years would be if President Bush decided to do an episode of “MTV’s Cribs.”

Pfohl supports Lance Bass’ dream of going into space. He does not, however, support allowing him to return to Earth. Pfohl is a fourth-year political science and history student. E-mail Pfohl at jpfohl@media.ucla.edu. Send general comments to viewpoint@media.ucla.edu.

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