Friday, October 10th, 2008

Editorial: U.S. should use outside help, not draft, in war

Few words echo as ominously as “military draft,” but the Iraq war is stumbling toward the 24-month mark, and U.S. troops are in desperate need of relief. The Bush administration is running out of options, and begging Europe for military assistance is the best – and perhaps only – way to save both Iraqi and U.S. lives.

Few Americans believe a draft is imminent, and thus far, no serious attempts have appeared before Congress. But after nearly two years of engagement, it looks as though the United States cannot hope to rebuild Iraq without more troops.

Currently, there are about 150,000 U.S. soldiers in Iraq, yet even this massive force has not been a guarantee for security. In a horrific confirmation of this reality, 125 people were killed in Iraq on Tuesday – victims of an insurgent’s car bomb.

Because of such incidents, it has become an item of faith in the American mind that pulling out of Iraq would plunge the country into an apocalyptic civil war.

It is impossible to predict exactly what would happen in Iraq after a U.S. withdrawal, but historical examples ranging from Afghanistan in the 1980s to Somalia in 1994 suggest the outcome could be catastrophic – in the short and long term.

And indeed, many people in the United States want U.S. troops to stay in Iraq until the job of reconstruction is done. (At least 49 percent of Americans polled by the Los Angeles Times said they supported keeping troops in Iraq for over one year.)

The Center for Strategic Studies and military officials have both cited late 2006 as the earliest a pull-out could begin.

But in that scenario, the question then becomes, how can America maintain its current troop deployment in Iraq without having its military implode?

The short answer is military leaders know that current deployment levels cannot be maintained much longer without increasing the size of the military.

The Army and Marines have upped their recruitment goals, and incentives to sign up have increased substantially, but 2004 was the first year the Army failed to meet recruitment goals in 10 years. Army National Guard recruitment is down 24 percent in the last four months.

There has also been a 75 percent drop in the number of active duty personnel who chose to go into the National Guard or Reserves.

These numbers may leave the Bush administration with two options: impose a draft, or find a way to involve European powers in a war they opposed.

For obvious reasons, a draft is unpalatable – Americans must not be forced to fight and die for a war that was based on half-truths and irrational militarism.

Which leaves the option of securing European assistance. Unfortunately, Bush’s second term is hardly the ideal time for building international coalitions. His ego will make it difficult for him to admit mistakes while simultaneously bribing and cajoling those leaders to help.

A draft won’t solve the Iraq war. International investment in an international problem is the only solution.