Forecast predicts recession
The UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts a possible national economic recession in 2006, which could negatively affect some UCLA graduates as they venture into the job market.
Entrepreneurs, business owners, chief executive officers and various businessmen interested in the “Prosperity for Mid-Sized Businesses: What’s New and What’s Important” were present at the a conference held in the Ackerman Grand Ballroom Tuesday morning.
Professors from the UCLA Anderson School of Management as well as other guests made economic predictions for the next quarter during the event.
Though most UCLA students might not be as concerned with how to finance growth in mid-sized companies, the forecast that was also presented at the conference has a chance of impacting them directly.
Professor Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, said he sees little growth in the economy in the upcoming future.
“How long can it last?” Leamer asked, referring to the state of the economy. He responded that current growth nationwide will subside.
During the conference he looked at ways that continuous expansion of the economy may be possible. Some believe that a tax cut, defense spending, sales of homes, and equipment and software may boost the economy.
But Leamer said that none of these economic remedies will be effective, except for exports.
Leamer predicts a recession as of 2006 and UCLA students will be affected because a recession would create a much weaker job market.
“Students who graduate this year will have a good job market. But after this year or next year, there could be a weaker job market,” he said.
In California specifically, UCLA Anderson Senior Economist Christopher Thornberg also predicts slow growth .
He added that a poor housing sector will pull down other parts of the California economy that have been doing well, such as travel and tourism.
“There will be a slowdown in construction as real estate cools,” Thornberg said. He went on to explain that the crowded housing problem will only get worse.
On the bright side, due to a decrease in the worth of the United States dollar, entertainment production has stayed in California instead of moving to other parts of the country or even to different countries. It has stayed cheaper to create entertainment here than in other places.
Thornberg also said that there has been a steady increase in the United States production of computers and electronics. This augmentation may mean more jobs in technology fields.
The predictions made during this Economic Outlook Conference were taken into account by those in attendance due to its historic accuracy.
According to the Anderson School at UCLA News Release, the forecast is “one of the most widely-watched and often-cited economic outlooks for California and the nation.”
The forecast foresaw the early 1990s economic downturns in California as well as when the downturns would bounce back.


