Thursday, July 24th, 2008

[A Closer Look: Campaign 2006]: Presidential hopefuls race to raise funds

In what may prove to be most expensive election yet, some may find running to be too costly

The next presidential election is almost two years away, but in both Republican and Democratic camps, some candidates’ campaigns already appear to be in full swing.

Names such as Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are already being touted as frontrunners, despite nine Democrats and 14 Republicans having announced their candidacy and a year to go before the first primary election.

The coming presidential election will be the first since 1952 with neither an incumbent president or vice president running, eliminating what is usually an obvious frontrunner.

Candidates are raising significant amounts of money in advance of the Iowa caucuses in January 2008. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., has already amassed $14 million in campaign funds, while Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a Republican, raised $6.5 million in a single day of fundraising for his presidential run earlier this month, according to The Associated Press.

In an interview with the Washington Times, Federal Election Commissioner Michael Toner estimated the 2008 race will be “the most expensive election in American history,” and will total more than $1 billion.

He said to be “taken seriously” by political parties and the press, a candidate will need to raise at least $100 million by the end of 2007.

Steve Levin, project director at the Center for Governmental Studies in West Los Angeles, said this level of expenditure will be important to claim the position as frontrunner as early as possible.

“In this case especially there are a lot more candidates so name recognition is a lot more important,” Levin said.

Nonetheless, experts were skeptical that the race is securely in the hands of the leading candidates.

Robert Erikson, a political science professor at Columbia University, said the frontrunners are not invincible.

“We have a year till first primaries and caucuses; it might become apparent that some become stronger, some weaker,” he said.

He said in other elections there have been candidates who look strong on paper but were weak when it came to the first primaries.

Political science Professor Lynn Vavreck said it is possible for candidates who begin their campaign early to lose support later on. Factors such as news coverage, scandals and fundraising would affect whether they can sustain that momentum, she added.

But Levin said for now, the big names are in by far the strongest position.

“The frontrunners look the most likely to hold onto momentum unless they do something drastically wrong,” he said.

He added that the amount of money required to compete could be prohibitive to many.

“Some candidates just don’t have a chance. Money is the name of the game if you want to be a candidate in this election,” he said. Toner called it “a $100 million entry fee.”

Candidates are also permitted to gather more funds than they could in the past, as the Federal Election Commission recently raised contribution limits for federal elections.

Individuals may now contribute $2,300 to federal candidates, $28,500 to national party committees and a combined total of up to $108,200 to all federal campaigns, parties and other political committees.

But Levin added that the apparent strength of the leading candidates did not write off the other candidates.

“There’s always room for a dark horse. Bill Clinton was an example of one who started off a little slow,” he said.

With reports from Derek Lipkin, Bruin senior staff, and Bruin wire services.

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