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And the envelope please ...

The Grammys ­ or the nominations, at least ­ are usually shocking. Here are our picks for who will win tonight.

By Michael Tatum

Daily Bruin Senior Staff

Popular music's most prestigious awards ceremony ­ or most irrelevant, depending on how you look at it ­ will be airing tonight on CBS at 8 p.m.

The Grammys and the winners are voted upon by the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences, NARAS.

These folks are not known for their good taste. Dylan and Hendrix never won Grammys in the '60s; Led Zeppelin and Elvis Costello never won Grammys in the '70s. And who can forget those world-historic shakers and movers of popular music, Milli Vanilli?

This year's Live Through This, from Courtney Love's band Hole, topped every major critic's poll in the United States and took second place honors in several others. NARAS did not find it worthy of a single Grammy nomination.

Basing our decisions on the conservative voting habits of the NARAS, the Bruin has picked the likely winners for this year's awards, as well as who we think actually deserve to win out of the five nominees. Unfortunately, due to lack of space, we could only accommodate major categories.

When appropriate, we've also included our own write-in candidates. The Grammy voters may have passed most of our choices this year, but if Dylan and the Stones have taught us anything, it's that 30 years from now, Beck will be accepting an award for Lifetime Achievement.

Album of the Year: The nominees are Tony Bennett's MTV Unplugged, Eric Clapton From The Cradle, Bonnie Raitt's Longing in the Hearts, Seal's Seal and Jose Carreras, Placido Domingo, Luciano Pavarotti with Zubin Mehta's The Three Tenors in Concert 1994.

What Will Win: As Paul Grein astutely noted in the L.A. Times, albums with strong conceptual hooks tend to win in this category. Here, the records with that edge are Bennett's (old fogey comes back with a hip image) and Clapton's (white bluesman pays homage to the black pioneers who weren't pale-skinned enough to be nominated for Grammys of their own). The Grammy will most likely go to Bennett for two reasons: First, Clapton already had his day in the sun with "Tears In Heaven" and Unplugged, and second, it seems more likely for younger voters to cross over to Bennett than for older voters to cross over to Clapton.

What Deserves To Win: The aging Bennett sings like an emphysema patient, the three tenors' record is an exercise in egomania, Seal's entry is a pop record without the pop hooks and Raitt's album is a tremendous letdown after the mainstream triumph Luck of the Draw. Leaving Clapton's flawed but listenable blues outing as the best record in this batch. Which isn't saying much.

Write-in Candidate: Beck's Mellow Gold, a challenging, diverse collection of songs that, unlike this year's nominated records, charges into a future of endless possibility rather than clinging onto a hopelessly dead past.

Best Pop Album: The Raitt, Seal and the three tenors' albums, plus Ace of Base's The Sign and Lyle Lovett's I Love Everybody.

What Will Win: Raitt. Since she won't win in the Best Album category, and Seal and the three tenors don't have her crossover appeal, her record seems more than likely to take honors here.

What Deserves to Win: Lovett's 20-track record is stuffed with filler; had he cut the finished in half, it might conceivably have deserved this award over its contenders. The Ace of Base record, meanwhile, actually has some mildly enjoyable fluff on it once you get past the overplayed singles. So while ideologically, Raitt probably deserves to win, her record is, objectively, probably qualitatively equal with the Basers'.

Write-in Candidate: This category is incredibly ill-defined: why is Seal nominated here and not in the R&B category? Why is Lovett nominated here and not in the country category? At any rate, our pick here is Latin Playboys, the magical, mystical foray into "East L.A. ambient music" by Louie Pérez and David Hidálgo of Los Lobos.

Best Rock Album: Pearl Jam's Vs., R.E.M.'s Monster, the Rolling Stones' Voodoo Lounge, Soundgarden's Superunknown and Neil Young & Crazy Horse's Sleeps With Angels.

What Will Win: Neil Young, who by virtue of his age probably carries the most weight with NARAS voters, has been high profile lately, particularly with his induction into the Rock 'n' Roll Hall of Fame. But R.E.M. has a squeaky clean image that goes down well with industry folk, and besides, they've been nominated for Best Album twice, once in 1991 and again in 1992, more times than any of the other nominees.

What Deserves to Win: How about that: three more-than -deserving nominees. Vs., better known as Pearls Before Whine, has been overrated by almost everybody, while Voodoo Lounge finds the former World's Greatest Rock Band on automatic pilot. But R.E.M.'s return to rock after years of sensitivity was sensational and Soundgarden's breakthrough after years of sludge was an artistic triumph. But Neil Young's dark, disjointed homage to Kurt Cobain and the world he left behind is the stuff of which masterpieces are made.

Best Alternative Album: Tori Amos' Under The Pink, Crash Test Dummies God Shuffled His Feet, Green Day's Dookie, Sarah McLachlan's Fumbling Towards Ecstacy and Nine Inch Nails' The Downward Spiral.

What Will Win: NARAS voters probably wouldn't invite Green Day over to dinner, but they can't deny the fact they sell a lot of records. Let's hope the band's acceptance speech is televised.

What Deserves to Win: Amos' and McLachlan's records are new age hyperschlock in disguise, while Nine Inch Nails' descent into calculated angst is compelling musically but lyrically, it's laughably juvenile. Leaving Green Day's engaging power pop ­ that is funny because it means to be ­ the most deserving nominee here.

Write-in Candidate: Yet another category whose parameters need to be defined more clearly. Does "alternative" mean "post punk rock" or "music whose videos are played by MTV's Kennedy"?

Either way, most of these records are "alternative" only in contrast to to the Best Album nominees. More suitable, and more deserving, nominees would be the eligible records from Beck, Sonic Youth, Pavement, Sugar and Hole.

Best R&B Album: Anita Baker's Rhythm Of Love, Boyz II Men's II, Tevin Campbell's I'm Ready, Gladys Knight's Just For You, N'degeOcello's Plantation Lullabies and Luther Vandross' Songs.

What Will Win: Using the Green Day rule, it can be predicted that Boyz II Men's record ­ the only one of the above five that had any commercial punch ­ will take the statue.

What Deserves to Win: In the real world, R&B means "dance music"; through the short-sighted eyes of NARAS it means any music recorded by someone of African descent. Baker, Knight and Vandross' records, their disposablity aside, belong in the "pop" category, not here. N'degeOcello meanwhile, is a promising artist with a long way to go before she deserves recognition on this scale. Leaving, oh well, Boyz II Men's record as the most deserving candidate of these slim pickings.

Elegant Slumming, by the British neo-disco band M People (masterminded by two white keyboardists and fronted by black diva Heather Small). Despite winning the U.K.'s prestigious Mercury Prize, this record was overlooked not just by the Grammy voters, but by most American rock critics as well.

Best Country Album: Asleep at the Wheel's Tribute to the Music of Bob Wills & the Texas Playboys, Mary Chapin Carpenter's Stones in the Road, Vince Gill's When Love Finds You, Reba McEntire's Read My Mind and Trisha Yearwood's The Song Remembers When

What Will Win: Mary Chapin's overserious, pseudoliterary Stones would seem like the socially responsible choice for Grammy voters. But actually, the album with the edge is Asleep at the Wheel's, which features numerous guest stars (including, oh dear, Huey Lewis), and salutes ­ though not especially well ­ one of country's crucial figures.

What Deserves to Win: When Mary Chapin Carpenter is your best pick for Best Country Album, you know you've got problems. Let's say we chuck the whole category out the window. Thank goodness Hank Williams wasn't alive to see this.

Write-in Candidate: Though it recalls the great chanteuses of country music's grand but long gone past, Iris DeMent's starkly beautiful My Life was nominated for Best Folk Album, but not here.

Best New Artist: Ace Of Base, Counting Crows, Crash Test Dummies, Sheryl Crow and Green Day

Who Will Win: Sheryl Crow, who is safe, mainstream, and "meaningful" without being threatening.

Who Deserves to Win: Those who find Sheryl Crow's overrated Tuesday Night Music Club a snore can console themselves in the fact that most artists who take home this category (Men At Work, America, A Taste of Honey, Milli Vanilli, etc.) vanish into obscurity a few years later. As for the rest, Counting Crows are watered down Van Morrison for self-pitying Gen Xers and nostalgic Yuppies, Crash Test Dummies are as lively as their namesakes, while Abba wanna-bes Ace Of Base churn out the harmless pap of which NARAS voters are fond. Leaving the bad boys in Green Day ­ notably the only artists here with energy or a sense of humor ­ as our pick.

Write-in Candidate: Beck.

Song of the Year: "Streets Of Philadelphia" (written by Bruce Springsteen), "All I Wanna Do" (by Sheryl Crow, David Baerwald, Bill Bottrell, Wyn Cooper and Kevin Gilbert), "I Swear" (by Gary Baker and Frank Myers), "Can You Feel The Love Tonight" and "Circle Of Life" (both by Elton John and Tim Rice).

What Will Win: "Streets of Philadelphia," which will win for the same reason that Tom Hanks won the Oscar: so that the voters can feel good about themselves for "contributing" to a worthy cause.

What Deserves to Win: The two Lion King songs are both asinine and irrelevant, and serve as a depressing reminder of Elton John's depressing deterioration into sub-mediocrity. Crow's song is about as fun as getting carjacked on Santa Monica Boulevard. "I Swear," is a corny declaration of true love, though that's probably part of its admittedly sweet charm. Leaving the Boss's deeply felt song about a man's struggle with AIDS ­ which could be the very first Grammy-winning song with a hint of homosexual content in the lyrics ("Receive me brother with your faithless kiss") ­ as our pick.

Record of the Year: Boys II Men's "I'll Make Love To You," Mary Chapin Carpenter's "He Thinks He'll Keep Her," Sheryl Crow's "All I Wanna Do," Bonnie Raitt's "Love Sneakin' Up On You" and Springsteen's "Streets of Philadelphia."

What Will Win: Springsteen.

What Deserves to Win: Springsteen.

Best Performance, Pop Female: Mariah Carey's "Hero," Crow's "All I Wanna Do," Celine Dion's "The Power of Love," Raitt's "Longing in Their Hearts" and Barbra Streisand's "Ordinary Miracles."

What Will Win: Of the five songs, only Carey's and Crow's had a considerable public presence this year. Since Crow will win Best New Artist, her victory here seems to be pre-determined.

What Deserves To Win: Raitt's entry was the strongest, and most spirited song, on her otherwise pro forma record.

Write-in Candidate: Victoria Williams' "You R Loved," an inspiring optimistic tune that's pop without the condescension that the word "pop" usually implies.

Best Performance, Pop Male: Prince's "The Most Beautiful Girl in the World," Michael Bolton's "Said I Loved You ... But I Lied," Elton John's "Can You Feel the Love Tonight," Seal's "Prayer For the Dying" and Luther Vandross' "Love the One You're With."

What Will Win: Seal's "Prayer For the Dying," sort of the black-pop version of "Streets Of Philadelphia," would seem to be the obvious choice. But Elton John has more commercial clout, thus he seems more likely to win.

What Deserves to Win: The shortcomings of housewife favorites Elton John and Michael Bolton needn't be mentioned. Luther Vandross is a great singer wasting his time with slick arrangements. Seal's song, like the rest of his album, means well, but is boring. Leaving the Purple One's likable ballad as the most worthy nominee.

Write-in Candidate: Freedy Johnston's "Bad Reputation." Johnston isn't as naturally histrionic as show-offs Bolton or John, but his world-weary delivery conveys the emotions his song means to deliver.

Best Performance, Pop Duo or Group: Ace Of Base's "The Sign," All-4-One's "I Swear," Crash Test Dummies' "Mmm Mmm Mmm," Lisa Loeb and Nine Stories' "Stay" and the Pretenders' "I'll Stand By You."

What Will Win: Ace Of Base's full-length record was the biggest seller of last year. Need we say more? Since they'll most likely be passed up in the other categories, this is the statue they'll most likely take home.

What Deserves to Win: Most critics would probably choose the Pretenders, merely on principle (i.e. "She didn't win for "Brass In Pocket," dammit! This will make up for it!"). But the song is musical cotton candy, about as sincere as a Pepsi commercial. Crash Test Dummies and Lisa Loeb's songs are one-shots that are blanks. Leaving our pick between Ace Of Base (perky, kinda cute) and All-4-One (cheesy romance, kinda cute).

Write-in Candidate: Though most people would file it under "alternative," R.E.M.'s gorgeous "Wall of Death," on the Richard Thompson tribute album Beat the Retreat, is mainstream folk-rock cut from the same cloth as Bonnie Raitt. It deserves to win on the basis of Michael Stipe and Mike Mills' emphatic duet vocal alone.

Grammy coverage will continue on Friday with a backstage report from popular music's dubious awards show.

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