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Logic prevails: UCLA leader of the Pac

By Eric BranchSummer Bruin Columnist

A wise man once said predictions are foolish. Of course, he was correct. For proof of this, just pick up any of this summer's college football previews sometime next January. Then you can snicker at a great number of prognostications: USC winning a national championship, UCLA finishing fifth in the Pacific 10 and a defensive player winning the Heisman.

It's like vowing to get a 4.0 fall quarter. It always sounds good in September, but by January, the mere idea is laughable. The reason is that these forecasters make the error of predicting the season on the basis of talent, returning starters and strength of schedule.

Armed with this knowledge, I examined the upcoming Pac-10 season by taking a slightly different approach. Although exhausting, this analysis took talent and the other useless variables with a grain of salt. The purpose of the study was simply to find who would represent the Pac-10 in the Rose Bowl.

After countless hours of research, I'm pleased to announce the news is good ... UCLA will win the Pac-10. The evidence is irrefutable.

OREGON - The Ducks have a new coach the year after going to the Rose Bowl. Four coaches in the past 30 years have taken over the past year's conference champion and not one has returned to Pasadena the following year. One down, eight to go.

WASHINGTON STATE - Wazzu head coach Mike Price has never had back-to-back winning seasons in his 14-year career. Last year, the Cougars posted an 8-4 record. Bye, bye.

OREGON STATE - Let's see ... why won't the Oregon State Beavers go to the Rose Bowl? A whole novel could be devoted to this subject. It could detail each of their NCAA record 24 consecutive losing seasons. It could examine their 54-212 record in those 24 years and it could attempt to explain their 21 consecutive losses to USC.

But save time and read the Cliff Notes. They stink. The end.

ARIZONA STATE - See if you can find a pattern:

* 1970s : .763 winning percentage, seven bowl games.

* 1980s : .673 winning percentage, four bowl games.

* 1990s : .455 winning percentage, zero bowl games.

Add the fact that last year's 3-8 record was the school's worst in 48 years with the above information and the guess is the Sun Devils aren't a team on the rise.

ARIZONA - The girl with a third eye never goes to the prom, nuns never go to hell and the Wildcats never go to the Rose Bowl. They remain the only Pac-10 team never to see Pasadena in January. Not even Teddy Bruschi returning for his seventh year can reverse this trend.

SOUTHERN CAL - The Sports Illustrated jinx. SI picked them No. 1 in the nation. This happened to Arizona last year and they ended up losing to Utah in the Freedom Bowl. The game was so bad that the bowl doesn't exist anymore. It's really too bad because Southern Cal really has a lot of talent this year. HA, HA.

Incidentally, the photo of Keyshawn Johnson grinning on the SI cover was taken right after receiving a couple thousand bucks from his agent.

CALIFORNIA - Switched from artificial turf to a grass field this year. Bad karma.

STANFORD - They have a new coach, Tyrone Willingham, who stands about 4-feet-6-inches and weighs 37 pounds. Besides this, their starting quarterback is Mark Butterfield.

A final point to be made here is the fact that they are a bad football team.

WASHINGTON - The Huskies are still on probation. Oh, that's over? Well, they are switching to purple helmets and white shoes. Since 1946, teams making uniform changes the year after coming off a two-year probation for improper loans to players named Billy Joe Hobert have not gone to the Rose Bowl.

UCLA - Four years ago the Pac-10 switched to an eight-game schedule, in which each team skips one Pac-10 opponent. Since the inception of the schedule, the team that UCLA has skipped has gone on to play in the Rose Bowl. The only exception to this rule occurred in '93 when UCLA went. The Bruins skip ... OSU this year.

See Oregon State above and you will realize that running water will appear in Corvalis before OSU heads to the Rose Bowl. So, let the celebration begin, cut short the post-Christmas ski trip and prepare to spend New Year's in Pasadena.

Obviously, this prediction is foolproof.

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