Monday, 6/30/97 General optimism surrounds city-state's transition to Chinese rule HONG KONG: Some liberties may be threatened, but most expecting smooth handover
By Tyler Maxwell Daily Bruin Senior Staff Napoleon once said of China, "Here lies a sleeping giant, let it sleep, for when it wakes it will shake the world." Some believe Hong Kong's change in sovereignty is a sign of the giant begging to stir. There has been talk in the Western press about Red China, with its censorship and political repression, swallowing a thriving capitalist, Westernized city-state. Many experts disagree with this portrayal of the situation in Hong Kong. Though there will be threats to liberties such as free speech and an increased Chinese military presence, there is general optimism regarding the transition. Hong Kong's stock market hit a record high on the last day of its pre-handover trading. The robust showing was seen as a sign of investor confidence in the territory's economic future. "For the most part it is business as usual," said Richard Baum, UCLA professor of political science. He is currently in Hong Kong to witness the historic transition. "It is not as it is represented in some Western media, a city that is on the edge of either a nervous breakdown or a massive invasion from across the border. It is a lot less worrisome than that," he continued. China has been on its best behavior in the weeks and days leading up to the transition. This calm exterior may be self serving. "I have to say that the Chinese have behaved themselves very well throughout this transition period," said Baum. "They realize that how the transition goes will effect China's image throughout the world. They have suffered a ... disastrous blow to their global image because of Tienanmen in 1989. They are still reeling under this." Many in Hong Kong mistrust and fear the People's Liberation Army (PLA) after the 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing. This image has lead to a lot of reform in the training procedures in the PLA, according to Baum. "There will never have been such a well behaved army occupying another country," he commented. China has the right to send in its army following the takeover. Outgoing Gov. Chris Patten speculated that China's sending armored personnel carriers into Hong Kong immediately following the transition would send "a very bad signal to Hong Kong and the rest of the world." A statement from the office of Tung Chee-hwa, Hong Kong's China-approved future leader, said land forces will cross the border at three points in 21 armored cars and 400 other vehicles. Ten naval vessels will dock at the Stonecutters Island base in the harbor, within view of the skyscraper-lined business district. Six helicopters will fly into an air base in the semi-rural New Territories. In light of this military presence, experts contend that China has a vested interest that things go smoothly in Hong Kong. "Most people don't think there will be a dramatic display," said Michael Davis, law professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. "Most of the bases are in more remote areas," Davis continued. "I would not expect armored personnel carriers to pass through urban areas. If this happens, it will evoke a dramatic response." "Taiwan is an object of their concern. The smoother the handover goes in Hong Kong, the better the chances that they will ultimately get the prize of Taiwan peacefully as well," said Baum. "If things get too oppressive here they will blow any chance they have of a peaceful reunification with Taiwan." The western media has emphasized the questions concerning free speech and the rights of the media in post-transition Hong Kong. "The area of self-censorship is one that has attracted a great deal of attention. It has occurred. It is occurring, and it probably will increase," said Baum. The pervasive form of censorship in Hong Kong is not what one might think. When China takes over, there will not be resident censors in each newspaper editing the copy; the censorship in Hong Kong is more subtle. "The fear is that there won't be direct censorship, but indirect censorship," said Baum. "For example, a business firm that is looking for a Beijing investment is not likely to advertise in a newspaper that takes an anti-Chinese stand," he said. "Because then they will be linked with anti-Chinese sentiment and could be subject to reprisal." Celebrations have been scheduled in the days leading up to the handover. The largest fireworks display in China's history, with estimated cost of $10 million (U.S.), is scheduled for the Monday night ceremony. The number of arrivals in Hong Kong from the U.S. is up by 18 percent this year, according to Kathy Smits of the Hong Kong Tourist Association. The long-term effects of the transition are anyone's guess. One immediate effect observed in Hong Kong is the increased solidarity among residents. People in Hong Kong have gained a stronger sense of their Chinese heritage. "There is a new pride in identifying people as Chinese here," said Baum. "We as Westerners are going to have to diminish our expectations that the rest of the world is going to eagerly devour everything we have to offer them." The Associated Press Crowds gather to listen to a band in Hong Kong's Kowloon Park on Sunday. Previous Daily Bruin Story Culture, state must cooperate for prosperity, February 18, 1997