By Joshua Mason
Daily Bruin Staff
All’s quiet on the western front.
In a span of two weeks, the darling college football teams of the West Coast took a nosedive in the official Bowl Championship Series standings after all the undefeated teams were wiped out in successive order.
First came the cinderella Fresno State Bulldogs, who fell to a little-regarded Boise State team. Then came Oregon’s loss to Stanford, followed by back-to-back UCLA and Washington State losses this past weekend.
For most Pac-10 teams, the new national championship situation appears grim.
“That’s what’s sad about the BCS,” said UCLA head coach Bob Toledo, whose Bruins fell from being in-control of their own destiny to ninth in the official standings, where they must rely on other teams to lose to have a chance at the championship game. “You lose one game and everyone thinks you stink.”
Of course, as those involved with the BCS are well aware, nothing is certain in the standings, which factor in the Associated Press and Coaches’ polls, strength of schedule, losses and a computer component.
“In my experience, this is a very close list, with the exception of the undefeateds and Oklahoma,” said David Rothman, a statistician who operates one of the computer component indexes that help determine BCS ranking. “There’s an excellent chance that somebody from the Pac-10 will finish No. 2 when all is said and done.”
If the Bruins were to win the rest of their schedule (no small feat in the closely-matched Pac-10), there remains a realistic chance for them to reach the Rose Bowl despite reports to the otherwise.
In fact, if the Bruins were to finish the regular season with a 10-1 record, it seems difficult to imagine them not garnering a BCS bowl invite of some kind.
Despite a ninth-ranking in the standings, there is a difference of only 4.58 points between UCLA and fifth-ranked Texas, a minor number considering the Bruins’ strength of schedule will improve significantly in the next few weeks, as well as the likelihood the Bruins will rise in the polls with every successive victory.
A midseason loss won’t be as heavily regarded five weeks from now, and potential victories over talented Washington State and Oregon teams could propel the Bruins into the thick of things once again.
There are only three teams remaining with undefeated records, and only two are likely to be considered by the BCS (BYU’s soft schedule has critics doubting their ability to end up with a top six finish and earn an invite to a bowl).
Undefeated Miami still plays three tough opponents (Syracuse, Virginia Tech and Washington), and could potentially lose to any one of them. Furthermore, a Nebraska-Oklahoma rematch seems likely in the Big 12 championship game, and an Oklahoma loss would probably knock the Sooners from any BCS consideration. Of course, a Nebraska loss could translate into a third Nebraska-Oklahoma matchup in the Rose Bowl. An outcome that would turn the entire BCS system upside-down.
If UCLA wins out and doesn’t win the Pac-10, because of their loss to Stanford, or finish one or two in the final regular season BCS standings, they could lay claim to an at-large BCS berth (be it the Fiesta, Sugar, or Orange Bowl).
Here’s how the situation breaks down in each of the major conferences:
• Pac-10: If UCLA wins out, there still isn’t a guarantee that they win the conference, because one-loss Stanford holds the tie-breaker advantage should they also win out. Of course, both teams accomplishing this feat would mean that one-loss Washington, Washington State and Oregon teams would all lose again, eliminating their chances to garner a BCS invite. Washington could also win out simultaneously with UCLA, but that would mean they would first have to knock off Stanford and Miami. UCLA would nonetheless win the conference title, and at the very least, a definite trip to the Fiesta Bowl (where the Pac-10 champ is headed regardless of record). Thus, if UCLA were to win the remainder of their schedule, only two Pac-10 teams could possibly finish with one loss.
• SEC: The SEC will only have one BCS invite when all is said and done (the SEC champion), because one-loss Tennessee still plays one-loss Florida, and the winner of the East will still play the winner of the West (meaning that only one SEC team, if that, will be able to escape the season with one loss).
• ACC: Here, too, there will be only one team going to a BCS bowl (their champ), because there really isn’t a powerhouse in the conference this season (FSU already has two losses and Maryland with a loss now has very minute national championship chances).
• Big 10: The Big 10 will send one team as well. Michigan is the only team with national championship hopes, but a Michigan trip to the Rose Bowl would not translate into another Big 10 BCS invite.
• Big East: One team will go, Miami or Virginia Tech, whichever wins on December 1. If Virginia Tech beats Miami and both have two losses, count Miami out, because of a weak strength of schedule.
• Big 12: Perhaps the most complicated conference outside the Pac 10 is the Big 12, which could conceivably front three candidates in Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas. Texas seems the most likely to win out and finish 10-1. Oklahoma and Nebraska will likely meet again in the Big 12 championship game, where another Nebraska victory would probably destroy any Oklahoma chances. A Sooner win might leave three teams in the conference with one-loss, leaving one team out because the BCS stipulates only a maximum of two teams per conference can be invited to a BCS bowl game.
Hypothetically eliminating BYU from the mix, that leaves a champion team from the four conferences (SEC, ACC, Big 10, and Big East), and a possibility of three candidates from the Big 12 and two from the Pac-10 (assuming UCLA wins the rest of their schedule) to fill eight BCS spots.
“You just can’t be concerned with the BCS,” UCLA strong safety Marques Anderson concludes. “The only thing we can control is winning games. We win these next four and anything could happen.”