Only Miss Cleo, fully armed with tarot cards and a gigantic bottle of rum could have predicted last year’s Pac-10 season. UCLA was picked to finish first, and ended up sixth, its worst conference finish ever.
So will this year be any different? There is a lot of potential on this team: if Cedric Bozeman and Dijon Thompson continue to mature and play well, if Steve Lavin can discover the mystical secrets of setting screens for Jason Kapono, if T.J. Cummings or Michael Fey can provide some interior defense and rebounding, and if ... oh, who am I kidding?
This team couldn’t finish first if it were allowed to play all 12 men on the court.
Be that as it may, here is this “expert’s” analysis of the Pac-10 standings, in order of worst to first.
Washington State: Perennial cellar dwellers the Huskies were 1-17 last year. They’re going to improve on that rather dubious mark, but not by much.
They’re the Cleveland Cavaliers of the Pac-10, without the incomparable Paul Moekeski (give yourself a pat on the back if you got that one).
Junior guard Marcus Moore, an Inglewood native, is going to end up leading the Cougars in scoring, rebounding, assists, minutes, steals and cornrows. He’s probably the best player you’ve never heard of, with one possible exception at Oregon State.
Washington: Junior Doug Wrenn is a nice talent, but I’m not so convinced he can lead a team. He seems to have Rasheed Wallace-type issues. Add to that a low field goal percentage and you’ve got a bad situation.
Sophomore guard Will Conroy has a nice stroke from three-point land but is streaky at best. They’re better than the Cougars, but not by much.
Arizona State: Freshman forward Ike Diogu has hops and a nice post-up game.
He’s my bet for Pac-10 Freshman of the Year, since he’s going to get more than a whole lot of minutes. Senior guard Curtis Millage is the leader of the team, and senior center Tommy Smith might lead the Pac-10 in blocks.
This isn’t a bad team at all, but just not good enough to place higher than the rest of the Pac-10. Besides, it’s pitifully overshadowed by Arizona; the Sun Devils are the Clippers to the Wildcats’ Lakers.
USC: The Trojans lost Sam Clancy, David Bluthenthal and Brandon Granville to graduation. That’s a huge hit to the program, a loss of 43.9 points per game. Errick Craven and Desmond Farmer can ball, but will Southern Cal be able to board? I don’t see anybody on that team that can rebound the way Clancy and Bluthenthal did.
Plus, USC lost to Rhode Island and was recently ripped 69-53 by UC Santa Barbara.
What’s the deal Trojans; you’re starting to look like the Bruins. Better get your act together, otherwise the L.A. media just might start getting on your case instead.
Oregon State: It’s all about senior Phillip Ricci. The boy has mad game. He’s like a white Charles Barkley. At 6 feet, 7 inches he just may end up leading the Pac-10 in rebounding.
When you think of Oregon State basketball, you think of Gary Payton.
But the SECOND name you should think of is Phillip Ricci. I’m actually frightened – yes, frightened – of what he’s going to do to the Bruins.
The Beavers were 4-14 last year, but fellow seniors Brian Jackson and Jimmie Haywood are going to help Ricci out.
Plus, they’ve got a guy named Floyd North III. I don’t even have a joke for that, because I think it would be redundant. (But do you wonder if North III owns a yacht called “Beaver Ball” or is it just me?) Anyway, I’m convinced the Beavers will improve on an ugly 4-14 season this year. They’re my sleeper team in the Pac-10.
Cal (tie): Senior guard Joe Shipp can light it up, and certainly he’s going to take a lot of shots this year. Senior Brian Weathers and sophomore Amit Tamir will help to score, and both are solid rebounders.
Last year, the Golden Bears won games based on a tenacious defense and clutch scoring. But Solomon Hughes graduated and Jamal Sampson foolishly left for the NBA, so the Bears are lacking size in the middle.
Still, the same strengths that carried them to the NCAA tournament last year will get them there again this year.
Stanford (tie): They lost Curtis Borchardt and Casey “Backstreet Spice” Jacobsen, and at times the Cardinal are going to struggle to score.
Senior guard Julius Barnes and sophomore swingman Josh Childress will have to score a whole lot, especially if Teyo Johnson keeps thinking he can hit threes. You’re a football player, Teyo. Go rebound.
And please, help Josh find his way to a weight room. A stiff breeze might shatter the poor kid’s bones.
Despite their shortcomings on the offensive end, head coach Mike Montgomery (winner of Most Arrogant Coach of the Year; a ceremony on Fox Sports Net is in order) will get his team to play hard every night.
UCLA: Yeah, I ripped it earlier, but the rest of the conference just doesn’t thrill me that much.
Except for Oregon State. Man I love the Beavers. Did you know that Brent Barry, one of my favorite players in the NBA, went to Oregon State? And he’s the teammate of the aforementioned Payton. Great stuff.
Oh yeah, this is the UCLA section. I think my colleague Jeff Eisenberg said it best when he described the Bruins as having all the interior presence of a donut. Plus, the Lavin factor is like an automatic handicap of around five to seven points a game. Still, with a roster of Kapono, Bozeman, Thompson, Ryan Walcott, Ray Young, Cummings and, (if he can manage to pass a few classes) Andre Patterson, UCLA should be good enough to finish somewhere around 12-6 in conference play.
Oregon: The two Lukes, Jackson and Ridnour, are crazy good.
This team lost Freddie Jones, who was its only legitimate threat to attack the basket every time he had the ball. It also lost Chris Christofferson, the very same guy that Yao Ming was last seen abusing in his draft-camp workouts.
Stop laughing. That will hurt the Ducks more than you think.
Still, when considering the fact that the team plays in Mack Court and has tons of talent, there’s no way it will finish lower than second place in the Pac-10.
Arizona: Is this an NBA team or what?
Luke Walton, Jason Gardner, Channing Frye and one of the best recruiting classes in the nation combine to form Lute Olson’s most talented team since, well, maybe ever. In fact, after a 1000-16 thrashing of the Sisters of the Poor, Lute actually quipped, “We’re going to beat a lot of teams by a lot of points.”
Those are big words from an otherwise humble man. The Wildcats are the No. 1 team in the country right now and might be all season long.