I’m sick of it all.

I’ve been hearing it ever since I have been following UCLA basketball.

“Fire Lavin!”

Over and over again after every loss.

Some have even used sophomoric plays on words dubbing the UCLA head coach “Osama bin Lavin.”

Lavin is no terrorist, and he has not orchestrated any mass murders. When the Lavin-bashing has reached these proportions, it has gone too far.

Therefore, I have emerged from my Stat Cave (in the Statmobile) to come to save the day.

For all of you Lavin haters (and lovers) out there, I’ve decided to statistically analyze how many losses it will take for Lavin to get fired.

That way, until he reaches that number, no one should complain about him. Ever.

And in case you didn’t notice, I am returning to my roots. I haven’t used Excel for a column lately, and I’ve gotten away from my stat geek title. I’ve just been plain geeky. So, I’m giving gymnastics the week off. I solemnly swear not to make fun of their glorified artistry at all. Happy holidays, my diminutive friends.

Werner Heisenberg has his Uncertainty Principle of electrons. I have my How Many Losses Until Lavin Gets Fired? theory.

For the test data, I looked at six college basketball coaches who have been fired in the last few years.

Nolan Richardson (Arkansas): He was cut loose for making some racial comments, but it came on the heels of a 14-loss season.

Bob Bender (Washington): He beat UCLA four years in a row, an impressive feat until this season.

Bob Knight (Indiana): He’d always been a little bit too fiery, but Indiana didn’t fire him until his team began to struggle. I wonder why?

Dave Bliss (New Mexico): He couldn’t get to the sweet 16, so he was fired. If Lavin gets fired, he should go there.

Rod Jensen (Boise State) and Mike Heideman (University of Wisconsin-Green Bay): Yeah, they have basketball teams.

I also looked at six coaches who have been on the hot seat, but weren’t fired.

Steve Lavin: His seat is so hot, the flame is blue, not red.

Matt Doherty (UNC): Finished 8-20 at a school that was second in most consecutive seasons without a losing record (UCLA was first). And he still wasn’t fired. UNC is now No. 14 in the country. Patience worked.

Pete Gillen (Virginia), Larry Shyatt (Clemson), Tommy Amaker (Michigan) and Tubby Smith (Kentucky) have also been on the hot seat.

Now for the math in the HMLULGF? theory.

I’m going to compare these two groups of coaches separately, and use a few main stats: career winning percentage, last season’s winning percentage, total losses, tournament success and standard deviations of the above.

After crunching the numbers, I’ve determined the following:

With 18 losses, there is a 94 percent chance Lavin will be fired. Seem a little high? Blame North Carolina for not firing Doherty, which skewed the values.

If he finishes just below .500 (13-14), he’d have a 76 percent chance of getting fired.

Of course, this doesn’t factor in a miraculous, Lavin-esque Pac-10 tournament run. I can see it now. UCLA goes into the tournament as the No. 8 seed and luckily wins three games.

So, let the countdown begin. Choose the percentage you want:

11 losses = 52 percent chance

12 = 61 percent

13 = 69 percent

14 = 76 percent

15 = 82 percent

16 = 87 percent

17 = 91 percent

18 = 94 percent

Have fun with the stat geek’s Lavin Countdown! And don’t talk about him getting fired until he reaches these numbers.